Meteors from comet 209P/LINEAR

Meteor outburst predicted for 2014 May 24th, peak activity close to 07:00 UT. Significant proportion of bright meteors; possibility of fireballs.

Table of 209P trail encounters in 2014 May
Comments on the data in the table
Could the outburst fail to occur?
Which parts of the world can see the meteors?
Time adjustment (topocentric correction)
Further Web links

Predicting the outburst using dust trail theory

In this context "dust trail theory" refers to the fact that the set of meteoroids released from a parent comet during a single perihelion return stretch out into a dense, narrow dust trail during their early orbital evolution. The theory calculates (by numerical integration) the evolution of a single, representative particle at each point along the trail, rather than calculating the evolution of particles with any possible 3-dimensional ejection velocity. A meteor outburst is predicted if a trail comes close enough to the earth. This technique works if the timescale is short enough. The idea goes back many years (e.g. Plavec 1956) and was successfully applied by the Kazan research group (Kondrat'eva & Reznikov 1985, Kondrat'eva et al. 1997 etc.) to many streams.

For comet 209P, dust trail encounters were first calculated by Esko Lyytinen when Peter Jenniskens realised the possibility of close approaches (Jenniskens 2006). Further extensive dust trail calculations were made by Mikhail Maslov (2014 outburst; description; computation and comet orbit; 1901-2100 predictions). The data in the table below were calculated by David Asher with the same program used for the Leonids by McNaught & Asher (1999).

UT - Universal Time unadjusted for topocentric correction
Revs - number of orbits of dust from ejection to 2014
Ep - ejection epoch (year)
Da0 - difference between semi-major axis (a0) of the comet and the particle at ejection. Da0~0.0 => large particles
rE-rD - distance of the dust trail node from Earth's orbit (Earth radius=0.00004AU) (Impact radius=0.00005AU) (trail widths can easily be a few Earth diameters, depending on ejection velocities)
fM - estimate of the along-trail dispersion. For a 1-rev trail, fM= 1.0 but for an unperturbed n-rev trail, fM= 1/n. Negative values indicate that the trail flows back on itself.

Year Mo DaUT Revs Ep Da0 rE-rD fM
2014 05 2408:0020 19140.002 0.00202-0.229
2014 05 2407:2421 19090.001 0.00061-0.149
2014 05 2407:0922 19030.001 0.00005-0.113
2014 05 2407:0123 18980.001-0.00025-0.095
2014 05 2406:5524 18930.001-0.00044-0.082
2014 05 2406:5225 18880.000-0.00057-0.074
2014 05 2406:4826 18830.000-0.00067-0.067
2014 05 2406:4527 18780.000-0.00079-0.050
2014 05 2406:4228 18730.000-0.00086-0.040
2014 05 2406:3929 18680.000-0.00090-0.033
Year Mo DaUT Revs Ep Da0 rE-rD fM
2014 05 2406:3830 18630.000-0.00093-0.029
2014 05 2406:3731 18580.000-0.00095-0.026
2014 05 2406:3732 18530.000-0.00096-0.020
2014 05 2406:3533 18480.000-0.00097-0.021
2014 05 2406:3434 18430.000-0.00097-0.022
2014 05 2406:3435 18380.000-0.00099 -.---
2014 05 2406:3436 18330.000-0.00100 -.---
2014 05 2406:3437 18280.000-0.00101 -.---
2014 05 2406:3438 18230.000-0.00102 -.---
2014 05 2406:3439 18180.000-0.00102 -.---
Year Mo DaUT Revs Ep Da0 rE-rD fM
2014 05 2406:3440 18130.000-0.00101 -.---
2014 05 2406:3441 18080.000-0.00101 -.---
2014 05 2406:3842 18030.000-0.00099-0.017
2014 05 2406:3743 17980.000-0.00096-0.023
2014 05 2406:3944 17930.000-0.00091-0.031
2014 05 2406:4745 17880.000-0.00078-0.054
2014 05 2407:1446 17830.001-0.00043-0.116
2014 05 2407:4747 17780.001 0.00001-0.047
2014 05 2408:0248 17730.001 0.00019 -.---
2014 05 2408:0949 17680.001 0.00030 -.---
2014 05 2408:1450 17630.001 0.00038 -.---
2014 05 2408:1951 17580.001 0.00046 -.---
2014 05 2408:2252 17530.001 0.00054 -.---

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In conclusion:


Could the outburst fail to occur?

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Visibility map:

*VISIBILITY MAP*
Region of Earth that can see meteors from comet 209P on 2014 May 24 at 07:00 UT

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Topocentric correction to trail encounter times:

*TIME OFFSET MAP*

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Visibility map
Back to comments on data in trail table


Further Web links:

Computer models:
Jeremie Vaubaillon, IMCCE
Ye and Wiegert (2014)
Mikhail Maslov

Meteor shower/outburst:
Peter Jenniskens (includes extensive summary of main work done during the decade since the comet's discovery)
Quan-Zhi Ye (May 21) (May 13)
International Meteor Organization
*NEW* IMO, Camelopardalids visual data quicklook
Society for Popular Astronomy
NASA Science News
IAU MDC meteor shower 451 CAM Camelopardalids

Comet:
209P/LINEAR (Seiichi Yoshida)
209P/LINEAR (Gary Kronk)
209P image (NASA/MSFC/Bill Cooke)
Images and analysis of 209P tail (Quan-Zhi Ye)
Rob McNaught's discovery of cometary activity in 2004: this object was originally known as near-earth asteroid 2004 CB
JPL Small-Body Database Browser
Minor Planet Center (includes observations)

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Webpage by David Asher using input (plot data and plenty more) from Rob McNaught
Maps drawn using PGPLOT; coastline data from NOAA National Geophysical Data Center

Last Revised: 2014 May 28th