The Leonid Meteors
Predicting the most spectacular meteor storms is now a remarkably exact
science, with some excellent Leonid displays happening in recent
years, for observers in the right parts of the world. These predictions
involve the accurate modelling of
dust trails
within the Leonid stream.
See also:
"Leonid Meteors Outburst" - press release
Movies of Leonid Meteors from night of 2009 November 16th - 17th
Leonids in 2009
Leonids 2009: visual data quicklook
Jeremie Vaubaillon
Mikhail Maslov
Peter Jenniskens / Leonid MAC
IMO Meteor Shower Calendar
Although the 2009 shower will not produce the storm level activity of the
Leonids some years ago, observers in the right part of the world should see
some nice outburst level activity. This will be due to material released by
the Leonid parent comet, 55P/Tempel-Tuttle, at various past returns,
especially those in 1466 (16 revolutions ago) and 1533 (14 revolutions ago).
Here are some 2009 Leonid results we calculated with dust trail theory,
i.e. following techniques pioneered by
Kondrat'eva and
Reznikov:
| Trail |
Delta a_0 |
rE-rD AU |
f_M |
Time |
| 14-rev |
+0.136 |
-0.0005 |
-0.09 |
Nov 17, 21:15 UT |
| 16-rev |
+0.105 |
+0.0011 |
0.10 |
Nov 17, 21:20 UT |
| 16-rev |
+0.106 |
+0.0009 |
-0.04 |
Nov 17, 22:00 UT |
- notation explained in
Mc Naught and
Asher's paper. A fuller list of trail encounters in 2009 is provided by
Mikhail Maslov's comprehensive study.
In fact, the above trail encounter data should not be interpreted as having
the same accuracy as data for very young trails, because these older trails
have had more time for the meteoroids in them to become more scattered or
disrupted. But the independent calculations of various researchers have
confirmed that both these trails ARE encountered by the Earth in the late
UT/GMT hours of Nov 17 (maybe extending to the very start of Nov 18 depending
on duration). See especially the results of
Jeremie Vaubaillon's computer models.
Mid-Asia is best placed to see the resulting outburst activity.
Prakash Atreya,
formerly of Armagh Observatory, is organising an
international Leonid observation campaign in Nepal.
As the lunar phase - virtually new - is excellent for the 2009 Leonids, there
should at least be a few Leonids to see wherever (clear and dark) you are, on
nights near Nov 17. Leonid meteors are best seen in the second half of the
night (exactly how many potential observing hours you get depends on your
latitude).
Engraving of 1833 meteor storm
(Made some decades later)
2007
Prospects for November 2007
Forecast for 2007 from the IMCCE (Jeremie Vaubaillon)
Forecast for 2007 from Mikhail Maslov
2006
2006 Reports
Prospects for November 2006
Forecast for 2006 from the IMCCE
Forecast for 2006 from Mikhail Maslov
Forecast for 2006 from Mikiya Sato
McNaught/Asher estimates for years 2000 to 2006
2005
Forecast for 2005 from the IMCCE
2004
Prospects for November 2004
The unexpected 2004 Leonid meteor shower - PDF Format
2003 and 2004 from Leonid MAC
2003
Predictions for 2003
Observation Reports for 2002
Dazzling Display - Space.com
UK Clouded Over - BBC
Images from SpaceWeather.com
Radio Forward Scatter Observations, UK
2002
"Leonid dust trail structure and predictions for 2002"
by
R.H. McNaught and D.J. Asher
in
PDF and
Postscript formats.
Summary for 2002
Comparison of 2002 Predictions
Lyytinen's Predictions
Francis Reddy's Site
Gary Kronk Leonid page
Leonids 2002 at space.com
NASA Forecasts
Warnings for Spacecraft
Astronomy Magazine
How to View Meteor Showers
Photographing Meteors
2001
2001 Reports
2001 Reports from Italy
2001 Report by Daniel Fischer
Images of the storm
Predictions compared to observations
McNaught-Asher Predictions for 2001
Space.com News
2000
Reports of 2000 Observationsfrom the IMO
Reports of 2000 Observations from the AMS
Reports of 2000 Observations from ESA
Leonid 2000 Radio Observations
Leonid 2000 Amateur Observations
Predictions for 2000
1999
Reports of the 1999 Leonid Shower
Final Comments for 1999 from Asher and McNaught
Earth in a Twist: Predicting the Storm 1999
1998
The 1998 Leonid fireball outburst
Other Leonid Sites
Leonid MAC - NASA Ames
Leonid Photos and Links from Timo Leponiemi
Leonid Site by Carl Koppeschaar
Near-Live Leonid Watching System
Ancient and Medieval Leonid Observations
Japan and the 1698 Leonids
International Meteor Organization
Biography of
Wilhelm Tempel by J.L.E. Dreyer former Director of Armagh Observatory.
Last Revised: 2009 November 16th
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